Spring Break arrives tomorrow once the kids (and college students) are done with school. The start to the time of will be quite nice. We'll see mostly sunny skies on Friday, with a high reaching 80°. We'll even make it to 79° on Saturday. Wind, of course, will be around. It will be sustained at 10-15 mph tomorrow and 15-20 mph on Saturday. The main problem, if you're staying around west Texas for Spring Break, will be the cold front coming in Saturday night and into Sunday. This is going to shift the wind around to the north-northeast and will pull colder, dryer air down from the Plains. So, Sunday is going to be a 180° turn from where we will be tomorrow and Saturday. This cooler air will even last a few days. Not quite what you want to hear if you're staying home for the week off. The cold front coming in Saturday night will keep things dry. There is just not enough moisture around to bring in helpful rain. So, the deficit is going to continue to grow, which we don't want to hear.
The picture below is a forecast model of what to expect Tuesday evening. I have highlighted a few things. First, the top left picture is showing the flow pattern at about 25,000 feet. There is a very recognizable signature setting up for forecasters. This is called an Omega Block formation (because it resembles the Greek letter Omega). There is high pressure centered from New Mexico up into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. There are two low pressure centers, one off the coast of Washington and one over northern New England. There will be precipitation under those low pressure centers and dry air under the high. If you look to the bottom left, the Omega is highlighted in yellow. This picture is showing the moisture at about 10,000 feet. It is showing moisture available over west Texas. This means there will either be cloud cover, or the moisture will not make it to the ground because of the dry air, or both.
How we can tell that the precipitation won't make it to the ground is the bottom right picture. This is shows forecasters where the model is predicting precipitation. In the same circled area there is no rain. So, we'll likely see clouds around on Tuesday afternoon/evening, but no rainfall. Unfortunately, this dry spell we have been in since October will continue with no great opportunity to see rainfall in west Texas. However, if you're travelling to the coast for Spring Break, things are looking good Saturday. From South Padre Island, to Corpus Christi, will be dry and sunny. There will be thunderstorms in the vicinity of Galveston Island and vicinity on Saturday. High temperatures along the coast will be in the upper 70s for Saturday afternoon. So, the first day of the break will be good along the coast. The only travel issues on Friday will be in Austin and Houston with scattered thunderstorms.
Enjoy your Spring Break, be safe and have fun!