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Spring Is Here...But It's Still Dry


Spring officially started Tuesday at 11:15 am. We're actually going to be seeing very warm conditions as soon as this afternoon. By now I'm sure you're aware of La Nina, which has been plaguing us since November. La Nina brings dry and warmer weather to the southern United States. El Nino brings in cooler and wetter weather. It's the opposite in the northern United States. That is the reason why the northeast is getting pounded with snow storm after snow storm. Ski areas in the east are still open and loving all the snow. Commuters and school teachers, probably not. Snow will continue to fall in the northeast this afternoon, through tomorrow morning.

The photo above is the forecast for March 29 at 7:00 pm. Yes that is still more than a week out, but it is nice to discuss. The weather pattern that will be setting up by tomorrow is going to continue to keep things dry and warm. The record high temperature on Thursday (March 22) is 87°. The forecast high for Lubbock is 85°. So, we will be very close to that. Expect to break the record high on Friday, March 23. The record high then is also 87°. Lubbock will make it all the way up to 90°. The wind will be blowing at 15-25 mph, too. That means the fire danger is going to be severe. So, please be careful around open flames for the foreseeable future. We'll be looking at very warm air all the way through Tuesday. That si when highs will drop back down to the upper 60s.

The photo below is the four panel forecast for later this week. This is explaining why we are going to see the warm air and dry conditions. We will be settling into a blocking pattern again. This is the Omega Block, because it resembles the Greek letter omega. What happens is high pressure builds into the center of the country, which will make things warm and dry. The east and west coast will be under the influence of low pressure. That is going to bring in cooler air and more rain/snow. The panel on the low left is showing moisture at about 10,000 feet. This influences things at the surface. We see the brown/orange colors indicating the dry air. The bottom right shows precipitation forecasted to fall. You can see the correlation between the dry air at 10,000 feet and dry air/no rain at the surface.

Back to the above photo. Once this blocking pattern breaks down, there is potential for the weather pattern to change in eight to nine days. That would be we'll see lower high temperatures, cooler air and the potential for rain. There will still be change in the forecast, so don't trust this just yet. I am showing it to you to show how the forecast is forever changing. However, it would be wonderful to see several inches of rain. We desperately need it!

 

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