Changes On The Horizon

We finally have something different to talk about this week. A cold front has already moved through the area here on Wednesday. The wind has shifted to the north and northeast, pulling down colder and dry air. Unfortunately, this cold front has sucked out all of the moisture from the region and we will not see rain out of this one. The wind will be sticking around at 20-25 mph in the next few days. The extreme fire danger has been very bad in west Texas for several weeks and we have seen fires devastating thousands of acres in Texas and Oklahoma. As dry as it's been and with the wind gusting to 45 mph, these fires will spread out of control for a very long time.

Now, in the pictures above, we do see some good news. This is the 8-14 day precipitation and temperature outlook valid from April 25-May 1. La Nina is beginning to weaken, so we will begin to see shots of rain and storms returning to the forecast. The picture on the left is the precipitation outlook. It's showing that we have a slightly above average shot at seeing some measurable rain to end April and for the early part of May. The temperature outlook is on the right. Even though we're going to see below average highs from today through early next week, we'll get warmer air towards the end of the month. We're looking at between 30-40% above the average. That means high temperatures will likely be in the 85°-90° range for highs several days.

The picture below is the American forecast for Friday, from 10:00 am-4:00 pm. It's showing some showers and thunderstorms coming in from the west. This is part of our next cold front and dry line that will move in on Friday. Even though the air will be cooler, we will see moisture, lift and instability in our area. Those are ingredients for showers and thunderstorms. There will be a few hail produces Friday afternoon/evening southwest of Lubbock. The higher probability for severe storms is in the Permian Basin. So, if you remember what an umbrella is, you'll need it Friday and early on Saturday!