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Getting Back To "Normal"

July 10, 2018

The latest drought monitor is going to be released on Thursday. The above photo is the current outlook from last week. It is showing some improvement from earlier in the summer. The Exceptional Drought level is gone from west Texas and is located in parts of south Texas. We have seen rain in the area lately, especially over the weekend. The eastern counties, off the Caprock, have seen the most rain, as well as for some counties along the state line. That is why the levels are lower in those spots. There is still the Extreme Drought level in Hockley, Lamb, Bailey and Cochran Counties. Lubbock County is in the severe drought right now.

 

We are not going to get any relief from the drought any time soon. High pressure is in control over western Oklahoma. This is actually going to move to the west. High pressure has clockwise rotation, so it is going to try to bring in some moisture to the area today. We will see the moisture in the form of clouds for most of us. I can't rule out a few spotty showers in the Rolling Plains. Coverage of these showers will be less than 10%, like what we saw in the southern counties yesterday afternoon and evening. As the high moves farther west, dry air is going to dominate the region. So, we'll see high temperatures back in the mid and upper 90s, especially over the weekend.

 

There is monsoon moisture in Arizona and New Mexico, but this will not make it into our area. That means the rain and storms will not give us relief from the heat and drought. The pattern we are in, especially in the upper levels, is not conducive to bringing showers, or storms to west Texas. We really need a strong cold front, or a tropical system to bring us the welcome rain. The farther we move into Hurricane Season, the less likely it is to get a tropical system in the Gulf. Not out of the question, just less likely. We'll probably have to wait until El Nino kicks in this Autumn, or winter, for us to see substantial moisture to west Texas.

 

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