We have become accustomed to see showers and storms in the area basically every day over the last week, or so. The moisture has been coming in from the south and southeast, which is typically does this time of year in west Texas. Tropical Storm Gordon will not affect us in any way, which is a shame because we really do need a lot of rain. The deficit in Lubbock is 7.28"! A cold front is going to be moving in from the panhandle later on this evening and tonight. It will help to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms in the region after 6:00 pm. There will be heavy rain and flooding in some locations, so stay safe out there. The showers and storms will continue through the morning hours on Thursday, before dry air will make a return. With the cool front and rain, high temperatures will be the lowest we've seen in about five months! Highs will be in the 70s tomorrow through Saturday.
The above pictures are the 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook, valid September 12-18. This is showing bad news for our part of the state. The temperature outlook is showing a good probability of high temperatures above average. The counter to that is the precipitation outlook giving us a 40% shot of having below average precipitation. This means we will see temperatures back in the 90s with very dry air. So, we need to see plenty of rain tonight, through Friday morning to help combat this at least a little.
There is still a good probability of El Nino returning as we move into October-December and for the winter season. This is when there is warmer water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. When this occurs, more moisture flows into the southern United States and especially here in Texas. The only down side to an El Nino pattern is that it occurs during cold months. Therefore, that would increase ice and snowfall for west Texas. This is something to watch, for sure. Hopefully October and November will be quite wet!