As anticipated, the snowfall forecast, in terms of amount of snow, has changed once again. The timing is still looking the same, with the western counties starting to see the transition to snow by 9:00-10:00 pm and closer to, or just after midnight for Lubbock. The low pressure system that is going to bring us the wintry weather tonight is taking a slightly more southern track. That is the reason for higher amounts switching to the southern counties. Locations in Gaines, Dawson, Borden and Scurry Counties have the probability of seeing 3-4" of snow by noon tomorrow. We're now looking to see less snow in the northern counties, if any at all. I'm still thinking low end for snow in the north, so more likely an inch or snow for Plainview, Friona, Muleshoe, Silverton and Turkey. The eastern counties will be lucky to see an inch of snow, with some light ice late tonight.
Now for Lubbock. I was on a conference call with the Lubbock National Weather Service this afternoon. They informed us that the latest model trends show the higher amount switch to the south. They suggest closer to 4" of snow for Lubbock. I am still leaning on the lower end of that end and think that we'd see 2" at the most. Here's why. Temperatures just off the ground remain above freezing. Two inch ground temperatures were near 40° today. That suggests that anything that falls will have a hard time accumulating. Once the light rain/sleet changes completely to snow, it will take a while to accumulate. The snow that will fall will be wet snow, which has a harder time accumulating, especially in this part of the country. This system is going to be a fast mover and the window for Lubbock snow is looking closer to midnight-10:00 am, perhaps even 9:00 am. That's not a long time for wet snow to accumulate.
By midnight, we'll see temperatures in the upper 20s. That is sufficient for accumulating snow. However, it will still take a longer time for the ground to cool down. The storm is taking longer to pick up steam and I thought we'd be seeing rain by now (3:45 pm CT). The rain would help to cool the air down, promoting a quicker change to snow and better shot at accumulation. For these reasons, I am still thinking that Lubbock will be lucky to see two inches of snow by noon Saturday. With that said, road conditions wills till be slick Saturday morning. So, if you're headed out before noon, please use caution and avoid the loop, Marsha Sharp and Interstate 27, especially the bridges and overpasses.
As shown in the photo below, a winter weather advisory remains in effect until noon on Saturday.