Believe it, or not, but there is actually a lot going on in the next seven days. On Monday, wind was the big story with the orange and brown sky, thanks to blowing dust and dirt. You couldn't tell, but we actually had above average high temperatures. That system that brought us wind is now moving east and giving us a break for today. Wind this afternoon will be at 5-10 mph, with slightly higher wind in the northwestern counties this afternoon. Dry weather is really the biggest issue. Fire danger is still really high, even when we have light wind. We have only managed a trace of precipitation in 2019. So the ground is very dry, even with the light rain on Monday morning. So, it's pretty much the same old same old for west Texas weather lately.
The photos above don't really show any relief upcoming for west Texas. The above left picture is showing the probability of precipitation from February 19-25. The target for rain is going to be in the southeastern United States. Our region is showing about a 33% probability of precipitation. That is basically average. The above right photo is looking at the temperature forecast for that same time period. We are looking at a 45% probability of below average highs. So the end of February is actually looking like we will be feeling like we should, or even colder. If we do get precipitation during that time frame, February 19-25, there would be the opportunity to see some snow. But don't take that to the bank!
If you ask me, it would be nice to see some more snow across west Texas as we round out February and head into March. Actually, March snowfall is not completely rare for Lubbock. It was just a few years ago that we saw several snow events in the month of March. We'll wait and see what happens this year. El Nino was supposed to be strong, which would have brought more unsettled weather with snow early and potentially severe weather toward the end of the month. Well, El Nino has been quiet so far. I would not expect a dramatic change, unless we see that El Nino pick up at the end of the winter season. Spring arrives March 20 at 4:58 pm CT.
The picture below is showing the forecast wind on Thursday afternoon. I mentioned that today gets a break from the strong wind we had on Monday. Well, it will increase to 15-20 mph on Wednesday, but Thursday is when we get more very strong wind. I know this is Valentines Day, but this year Mother Nature is going to be giving us a treat of wind. Sustained wind expected to be at 20-30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph. I would not be surprised to see more blowing dust and dirt as it is going to be very dry again. So if you have plans on Thursday evening, be ready for that wind to cause some issues out there. Sorry!