I mentioned last week that we will begin to see showers and thunderstorms in the forecast this week. We have not seen welcome rainfall at all in 2019. We are only sitting at .02" of measurable precipitation this year. We are going to start to see showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms are going to bring in heavy rain and some gusty wind. There will be a break Tuesday morning, before coverage increase once again Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system is coming in from the southwest, so that is the reason we are seeing an increase in moisture across the region. That low will help to create lift, which will generate stronger storms later Tuesday evening.
Our area has a Slight Risk to see severe thunderstorms Tuesday night/very early Wednesday morning. I know a slight risk does not sound too impressive. Storms will have a 15% chance of producing wind gusts over 58 mph, a 15% chance of quarter size hail and a 2% chance of an isolated tornado, or two. So the tornado risk, although low, is not zero late tomorrow night. That low pressure system will meet up with a cold front. That will generate a squall line closer to 1:00 am Wednesday. Squall lines are know to move pretty fast and typically include strong wind. Isolated large hail can't be ruled out with this line either.
Thunderstorms will begin to move east after 2:00 am Wednesday morning. The cold front will push thunderstorms outside of our area by 7:00 am Wednesday. We're actually going to see mostly sunny skies Wednesday afternoon. However, wind is going to become very strong. We'll see wind sustained at 35-45 mph with gusts reaching 65 mph at times. Unfortunately that strong wind is going to cause major issues out there Wednesday. Bring in the lawn furniture and watch for tree branches and tumble weed being blown around Wednesday afternoon.
Obviously I will keep you updated on my website, as well as on Facebook.com/NickKraynok and Twitter.com/Nick_Weather.