Severe weather is back in the forecast this evening. The yellow counties, including Lubbock, do have the best shot at seeing these storms. The timing looks like storms will begin by 5:00 pm in Lea County, NM and spread into Gaines and Yoakum and Dawson Counties. The storms are going to move to the northeast once they get going. A cold front is already moving through our northern counties, where the air is much colder already. The front is forecast to stall somewhere north, or just south of Lubbock this afternoon. That is important. Areas north of the cold front will be out of the woods for severe storms. Areas south of the front are the focus for those storms. That is something I will be watching as we move throughout the afternoon.
The threats for storms will be 1" size hail, with isolated amounts larger than that. 60 mph wind gusts are also possible. The tornado threat is slim. However, across the southwest counties, that threat is not zero. As the evening progresses, the threat will turn to more of a wind threat, with hail becoming less of a possibility after sunset. The storms will move through Lubbock between 8:00 and 10:00 pm. Large, damaging, hail is certainly a possibility for Lubbock tonight. Be prepared and start planning now.
Updates from the Storm Prediction Center will be given a few more times through the day. The forecast is not looking to change dramatically. However, is this does change and the severe threat is moved more south, I will post another blog update as soon as the forecast is issued.
Below is the forecast radar for 8:00 pm tonight. This is showing the storms already moving through Lubbock. The front is now forecast to stall just north of Lubbock, so we will watch that for the severe threat across Lubbock County.