It appears to be a busy severe weather season across west Texas. Nearly every week we talk about severe storms impacting the area. Well, here we go again. This time, I'm watching a low pressure system coming in from the west. That will interact with a dry line in our region. From years of experience, we know that when a low pressure system like this interacts with a dry line, severe storms do occur. The dry line is forecast to set up right along the I-27/U.S. 87 corridor late Monday night and into Tuesday morning. In the above picture, the Storm Prediction Center already has portions of our area under a 15% chance for severe storms Tuesday.
The Storm Prediction Center issues these outlooks so far in advance when they see a setup like we are going to get. This is good because it will give you a heads up several days in advance. This is looking like a night-time setup, so that can be extra dangerous. You really need to be prepared, because it's harder to see what is happening and most people are already in bed. A NOAA Weather Radio is a great thing to invest in. It will alert you when there are severe thunderstorm/tornado watches and warnings with a loud noise that will wake you up.
There is a difference between the two longer term forecast models. One brings the storms through late Monday night, through about 4:00 am Tuesday. The other one starts the storms by 3:00 am Tuesday and has them leaving the area to the east by 10:00 am. So I will have to watch to see if they come in a better agreement in the coming days. I suspect they will. It's looking like large hail and wind over 60 mph will be the primary issues. The greatest threat for severe storms early Tuesday will be along the Red River near Wichita Falls and into southern Oklahoma.