The severe weather outlook had changed, as expected, for the next two days. Today's outlook has shrunk as of the morning update. There is a slim portion of marginal risk area across west Texas. Lubbock is not included, but it close to the darker green area. A marginal risk means that there is a 2% risk for severe storms in those counties. Strong wind over 60 mph will be the primary threat, with some storms being capable of ping pong ball size hail. This threat is very low, as all models are indicating a dry and warm day for us. So I would not count on severe storms today, but if storms can form, they will be in the Rolling Plains east of Lubbock.
The main focus for severe storms will be tomorrow afternoon. A cold front is forecast to be in our northern counties by sunrise Monday. That will slowly move south during the day. Thunderstorms are expected to form after 1:00 pm ahead of the front. Those storms could become severe in the yellow areas highlighted in the photo above. Quarter-to-golf ball size hail is possible with any storm, as well as wind gusts over 60 mph. The storms will race east once they get going. It appears that by 5:00-7:00 pm, the severe threat may be over with. Other, non-severe, storms are expected to form just north of the cold front. Those storms would not have the power to become severe. Those non-severe storms are expected to be ongoing through 8:00 am Tuesday. Rain will be in the forecast with a few overnight storms and coverage of those storms through Tuesday morning is 40%.
The above photo is the outlook for severe storms on Tuesday. That threat is now over for west Texas. The cold front and dry line will be east of our area, so any thunderstorms will be east of those boundaries. The thunderstorms will be out of our area by early Tuesday morning. Expect a dry day on Tuesday as the storms will be moving in quicker than what we though a few days ago. This will end the severe threat Monday evening and will have a zero severe threat on Tuesday.