Several Severe Weather Opportunities

This has been a very active year, so far, in terms of severe weather in west Texas. The yellow areas in the picture above have the best shot at seeing more severe storms this afternoon and evening. It's looking like the window is going to be 5:00-10:00 pm. Thunderstorms are going to begin to form by 4:00 pm in eastern New Mexico and will quickly push east. As they move into the Texas side of the state line, they'll start to increase in intensity. All severe modes are possible this evening, including a few, isolated, tornadoes.

The tornado risk is low for today, but it is certainly not a zero risk. We'll also get some flooding with these storms, as the air mass is very moist. Hail size will be up to 2" in diameter. That would be half dollar size. Wind will also gusts between 60-70 mph. So please be weather aware as you head out this afternoon and evening.

The severe threat will not end today. The darker green counties, which is basically the entire area, will have another shot at seeing severe storms tomorrow, as well. As of now, this risk is much lower than today. However, it is certainly not out of the question to get some severe storms tomorrow evening. The timing is basically the same. We're looking at generally after 5:00 pm for these storms to begin to develop. They will race east and bring in the potential for 1-1.5" hail, 60-70 mph wind and an isolated tornado. The tornado threat is low, but much like today, not a zero risk. You'll definitely need to be prepared for severe storms in the area tomorrow. So please be safe and keep an eye on the weather.

As you head back to work and school on Monday, be ready for another day with severe thunderstorms in the forecast. Once more, the entire area will have the risk to see thunderstorms with 1-2" size hail and 60-70 mph wind. We'll have to wait and see what the tornado risk looks like on Monday. Nonetheless, the afternoon and evening hours are looking prime to see more bad storms. As is typical this time of year, the timing will be after 5:00 pm. It's not going to be overly warm on Monday, but we will see plenty other ingredients for these storms to quickly become severe.

As another note, we do have a risk to see some severe storms on Tuesday. The early outlook for that day is at 15% which would be a slight risk. Slight risk sounds like nothing. But more times than not, those areas get a few severe storms. I am expecting the severe storms over the next few days before a cold front will finally push the dry line well east and we will take a break from these severe storms.