Here we are again talking about more severe weather this afternoon and evening. It has been an active spring and that will continue for the next few days.Today's threat will once again begin this afternoon, with storms forming just west of Lubbock. These storms will move east.
Yellow areas on the map have the best shot at seeing severe storms today. The latest high resolution models are indicating storms forming by 5:00 pm and will pass east of Lubbock by 8:00 pm. Any storm will have the possibility of 2" diameter hail and 60 mph wind. The tornado threat today is 2%. But after last night, we know that tornadoes can form unexpectedly. You need to stay weather aware this evening. The threat is looking to shift east of Lubbock after 8:00 pm tonight. Heavy rain is also something to keep in mind, as flooding is possible for those that see storms today.
The outlook for Monday is looking less likely for severe storms, but certainly not out of the question. As of now, our entire area has a marginal risk of severe storms, with the best risk well north of our northern counties. We are not in the clear by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, I would not be surprised if this outlook changes tomorrow morning to a slight risk fro portions of our area. Severe storms with large hail and 60 mph wind can't be ruled out in the evening hours on Monday. Our guard can't be let down because these storms can form quickly and will drop 1-2" diameter hail. Keep an eye to the sky and be sure to check the KLBK First Warning Weather App for the latest notifications.
The best day to see widespread severe storms is going to be Tuesday. Severe storms are forecast to develop Tuesday evening and will even last overnight, into the morning hours on Wednesday. This is shaping up to be a dangerous day, as several tornadoes are possible with these storms. The yellow areas have the best risk for severe storms. I would not be surprised if this gets upgraded to a level 3, or enhanced risk as early as tomorrow. I will keep an eye on it.
The dry line is going to be very active Tuesday afternoon. Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by 5:00 pm. These will work their way east through the evening. Another round of severe storms is forecast late Tuesday night and these could last well through 4:00 am Wednesday. 2" hail and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out with these storms. Storms after dark are very dangerous, so please have a way to get warnings and something that will wake you up. An all-hazards NOAA Weather Radio is recommended. You can find those are area United and Market Streets for $30.
I will update this page should anything else change.