Next Severe Threat

May 14, 2019

 

After an active five days, starting May 3, we saw more quiet weather conditions over the weekend and into this week. We'll see a lull in the showers and thunderstorms through Friday before our dry line becomes more active. We're going to be keeping an eye on that dry line later in the day on Friday. Right now, the red counties, just east of Lubbock and off the Caprock, have the best shot at seeing severe thunderstorms as we round out the week. Lubbock has a 15% chance at seeing severe storms Friday. Those red areas have a 30% risk. This far out, that is actually a pretty high risk.

 

Our set-up is looks like this: there will be plenty of moisture coming in from the southeast. The dry line is going to be moving from west-to-east in the afternoon. The computer forecasts are not quite in agreement as to where that dry line will end up in the evening hours. It's now looking like the dry line will be near, or east of Lubbock. Keep in mind that storms will form east of the dry line, so it's important to see where that dry line will end up. Wind will be turning with height as we get a disturbance coming in from the west. All of those factors will aide in severe thunderstorms with 2" size hail, 60-70 mph wind and a few tornadoes can not be ruled out. The timing is looking to be after 7:00 pm Friday, then perhaps through 3:00 am Saturday. 

 

The dry line is forecast to retreat back to the west late Friday night/early Saturday morning. More thunderstorms would be expected to develop as that moves west. It is not determined yet if these storms would be severe west of Lubbock. We'll have to see how things will turn out on Friday. Stay tuned! 

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