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©2020 BY NICK KRAYNOK

Multiple Days of Severe Storms

May 23, 2019

 

***11:45 am update- The new outlook has introduced a moderate risk for severe storms in Swisher, Briscoe and Hall Counties. The enhanced risk has now been extended southwest to include Lubbock. Be advised that baseball size hail, 70 mph wind and tornadoes are in the forecast for storms that become severe in the orange and red counties.***

 

 

 

Severe thunderstorms are back in the forecast across the area this afternoon and evening. The dry line has moved back to the west this morning, which you can tell with all of the moisture we have flowing into west Texas. The dry line will get moving to the east late this morning and early afternoon. It will stall out along, or just east of U.S. 87/I-27 by peak heating time. Thunderstorms are forecast to begin between 4:00-5:00 pm. These storms will quickly become severe and will quickly move to the northeast. 2-3" diameter hail, 70 mph wind, isolated tornadoes and flash flooding are all possible with these storms.

 

The locations in the orange in the photo above have the highest risk to see severe storms this afternoon and evening. However, locations in the yellow counties can not let their guard down, that includes Lubbock. You have to be weather alert today, especially during the evening rush hour. Please use caution driving and watch for these damaging storms. The timing is a bit unclear, but we could still see thunderstorms ongoing as late as 10:00 pm. 

 

 

There is also a risk to see severe thunderstorms on Friday afternoon/evening. Areas in yellow, basically the entire area, do have that risk tomorrow. All modes of severe storms are possible, including golf ball size hail, 70 mph wind, tornadoes and flooding. We have been seeing several rounds of severe storms this season. We all know how bad things can get. As we head into the holiday weekend, you really need to pay attention to rapidly changing weather conditions, especially if you're going to be outdoors. 

 

The timing looks to be by 4:00 pm tomorrow and these storms could last until well after dark. That is always a possibility this time of year. When it gets dark, the danger increases because our guard tends to be let down and people are in bed. Have several ways to get warnings as we move into the weekend. 

 

 

Not to be outdone, the yellow areas have a risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. The risk is for much of the same; quarter, to half-dollar size hail, 70 mph wind and isolated tornadoes. Unfortunately, tornadoes are very common in this part of the state in May and early June. This threat needs to be taken seriously this weekend. Many people will be outdoors, or trying to get out on area lakes for the Memorial Day weekend. Just be sure to have ways to get warnings. These storms could cause more damage in some locations.

 

 

There is already a 15% risk (slight risk) for severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening. The dry line is going to be very active over the next four days. As it moves east, it runs into high moisture content, there is counterclockwise wind turning with height, lift with the dry line and several other factors in place. Our entire area is under that risk on Sunday. It appears that the dry line will finally move east of the region by 8:00 Monday morning. Once that does, we will finally see some dry air and sunshine. Usually we want the rain, but this year, the rain has been coming with severe storms. So please pay attention the weather and have a plan in place from today, all the way through Sunday night.

 

 

 

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