Remnants of a Pacific tropical system have been pulling in a ton of moisture either side of the state line. That has helped to bring in showers and storms to the same areas for several days now. The result of that has been very high rain totals in a short period of time. The above photo shows 48 hour precipitation totals as of noon Wednesday. Flooding is obviously going to be a problem in these areas through Friday morning. Muleshoe, for example, has seen nearly five inches of rain in 48 hours! Friona is over three inches and Tulia is right at three inches. There will be more showers and storms affecting these areas tonight and tomorrow, too. There will also be more pockets of heavy rain falling as these storms move through on Thursday. This is going to be quite the week for rain west and northwest of Lubbock.
A cold front is going to be moving in from the north tomorrow morning and will help to keep the rain over our area Thursday. The computer forecasts are not consistent, so the timing and location of the front is still unclear. One forecast has it coming into our southern counties and stalling out south of Lubbock. That will give periods of heavy rain for Lubbock in the morning tomorrow. Another forecast has the front stalling just north of our area. That will keep the rain ahead of the front and in our area as well. The second solution would give more heavy rain and flooding to the central and western counties. The first solution would still bring rain, but it would push the system farther south quicker. The graphic on top shows forecast rain accumulation through Friday at 6:00 am (the rain will end before 8:00 am Friday). These are in addition to the several inches that has already fallen in the west and northwest.
No matter what happens with the cold front, there will still be some good amounts of rain falling across the northern and central counties. As the forecast above shows, the best timing to see rain in Lubbock is going to be in the morning hours tomorrow. The heaviest is still going to be west and northwest of Lubbock, but there will be periods of heavy rain for Lubbock, as well. Coverage of the rain is 40% on Thursday and will begin to dissipate for Lubbock around lunch time. Showers and storms will begin to move out of the state line counties Thursday afternoon and evening. The front will drop high temperatures on Friday into the low and mid 70s for most locations. The eastern counties will fall into the upper 70s and low 80s.