A cold front moved through the region on Monday afternoon. This cooler air is going to be felt today. Wind is going to remain out of the north, which means we will get lower temperatures and dry air from the Plains. Wind is only going to be at 5-10 mph, which is a rare occasion here in west Texas. This afternoon will be rather uneventful, before we start to see changes by Wednesday. A low pressure system from the Pacific is headed towards Arizona. This is going to pull in plenty of moisture into west Texas beginning Wednesday late-morning. Clouds are going to be on the increase tonight, through early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will start to form early in the afternoon hours Wednesday. This is the first shot at rain that we will see in the month of November. Wind flow will remain from the south, so high temperatures are expected to be near average in the upper 60s.
Expect more rain showers overnight Wednesday, into Thursday morning. The thunderstorm threat is going to be gone late in the day Wednesday, with heavy rain taking over as the main concern. These rain showers will move in from southwest to northeast through the morning Thursday. Expect pockets of heavier rain really anywhere in the region. Be on the look out for flooded roads through the early afternoon Thursday. Remember, you should never drive through a flooded road. It only takes a few inches of water to carry away a vehicle. Showers will move east of the area by the afternoon on Thursday. After that, the skies will clear Thursday night and it will get cold again by Friday morning.
Precipitation amounts are always difficult to pinpoint in west Texas, but significant rain can certainly occur with this low pressure system. The above photo is a computer forecast for precipitation totals from Wednesday afternoon through through early in the afternoon Thursday. That is the timing for this low to bring us rainfall. More than a half inch is certainly possible out of this fast moving storm. This particular computer forecast is calling for the heaviest rain to fall over the eastern counties. This is definitely a possibility, considering that the low is going to be moving from the southwest, to northeast. It's more hilly in those locations, so runoff can cause deeper water in flooded locations. Texas has a high amount of flood deaths each year, so be safe out there and use caution around these flooded areas.
It's starting to look as though precipitation will be hard to come by at least in the first half of November. September and October are usually the rainy months this time of year and we certainly got our fair share of the wet stuff in October. Aside from the great opportunity for many to get welcome rain on Wednesday and Thursday, looking ahead is looking like dry air will win out. The latest precipitation forecast for November 9-13 is showing more dry conditions for west Texas. This is good news for cotton farmers in our vicinity. There is the probability of portions of Scurry County receiving a 30% chance of above average rain. Just because the rest of us are not highlighted, doesn't mean we'll have at least a chance for some showers. This is something to watch after we get the rain this week.