We're starting out the week with changes occurring as early as this morning. A strong cold front is going to push down Arctic air from north. Temperatures on Monday will be dropping throughout the day today. Not exactly what you wanted to hear for the start of the work and school week. Today is going to be a good one to get the heaters on and stay inside as much as possible. That cold front will be lowering temperatures to below freezing in Lubbock by 5:00 pm, if not before that. Readings are already below the 32° across the northern counties as of 6:00 am. Tuesday morning will be seeing the coldest air of November and it will be reminiscent of how cold it was on Halloween morning. The northern counties will see temperatures in the single digits by sunrise Tuesday. Make sure the kids are dressed warm as they get to school. Cover all exposed skin and keep them in the heat as long as you can.
The cold air is going to be bad this afternoon, but the wind will be even worse. Sustained wind is going to be between 30-40 mph through 3:00 pm. Gusts will be between 35-40 mph at times, even higher in some spots. Wind chill values will be in the teens and single digits through early afternoon. Our entire area is under a wind advisory through 3:00 pm, with a high wind warning in Hall County. I know we are used to the wind in west Texas, but it will be down right awful today. This sounds like a summer heat forecast, but stay inside as long as you can today and tomorrow morning. Thankfully the wind is going to be dropping to less than 10 mph after midnight and through the morning commute on Tuesday. With readings in the teens tomorrow morning, that wind would have given us negative wind chills, but we will not be seeing that strong wind, with it only staying between 5-10 mph. The air tomorrow morning will be cold enough without that wind chill.
We always need to see some good rain in west Texas. I know this time of year, the farmers don't really want to see it, but we do need to add to the surplus of precipitation for 2019. The outlook for November 16-20 is calling for a 30% chance of above average precipitation in the central and most of the western counties, with a 50% chance of above average precipitation in parts of Cochran, Yoakum and Gaines Counties. Cottle and King Counties have a 30% chance of below average precipitation. The air is looking to be warmer during this period, so we don't need to worry about frozen precipitation during this time. There is no doubt that we will see some once winter arrives, but nothing like that in this outlook. There will be a couple of disturbances moving into the region next week, which is the energy needed to spark off a few showers and thunderstorms. As is normal, there will be pockets of heavy rain with any thunderstorms and some street flooding is possible.