The week before Thanksgiving has started out with above average highs and plenty of sunshine. This is west Texas, so we all know that will not last too long at all. We'll start to see clouds on the increase later this evening. A low pressure system is coming in from the southwest. That low is already sparking showers and thunderstorms in southern Arizona. The moisture will increase as that low heads our way, which will cause the clouds to increase. The moisture will also begin to fall in the form of rain, with a few thunderstorms by tomorrow. Wednesday has the highest probability of seeing showers and a coupe of thunderstorms at 40%. The window for thunderstorms will be small, before rain takes over. There will be pockets of heavier rain at times, thanks to the amount of moisture in the air. These showers will begin to have less coverage Thursday morning, with a few leftover by Thursday afternoon. Thursday night, through 8:00 am Friday will see another window of some rain in west Texas. The showers move east Friday morning with much colder air in place Friday afternoon.
This computer forecast is showing the rain, with a few storms, starting late Wednesday morning. This activity will move in from west to east, or southwest to northeast through the day. The wind will remain out of the south, which means highs will stay above average in the upper 60s for most locations. The highest coverage will be from late morning, through early afternoon on Wednesday. Expect some minor flooding to occur at any location that sees heavy rain. We have been dry for a while, so the rain over the next few days will be welcome so we can keep the surplus going for the year. I know that farmers do not want the rain this time of year during the harvest, but thankfully it will not be an all day event. In fact, it looks like the best window for most to see some rain will be from midnight-8:00 am Friday. Things will dry out as we move into the weekend, with highs remaining below average Friday-Monday. The weekend is going to see sunshine, but will be cool; especially on Saturday.
Precipitation totals will be hard to forecast, as these showers and storms will not hit every reporting site at the same time, or with the same intensity. It's always difficult to forecast rain totals, but this is the latest computer output through 5:00 pm Thursday. It is showing measurable rain for everyone, with nearly all of us seeing less than a half-an-inch in that time period. There will be some localities that will receive more than a half-inch, but widespread high totals are not expected through Thursday evening. Additional rain will fall late Thursday night, through 8:00 am Friday, where the grand total from this event will see anywhere from .50"-1". The higher totals will be isolated, but it's something worth mentioning. Be on the lookout for flooded roads as you head to work and school Friday morning. Dry weather will take over Friday afternoon and will last through, at least, early next week.