A Wetter Pattern Ahead

March 12, 2020

 

West Texas is unfortunately used to dry weather. That is a pattern we have been in since Thanksgiving of last year. However, it's looking like a wetter pattern is shaping up and it is coming at a very good time. This all starts tomorrow morning. A low pressure system is coming in from the west. Now, nearly all of the lift from this system is going to miss west Texas to the north. But, there will be enough to give us some light, to moderate showers Friday morning. As the day progresses, we'll actually get a break in the precipitation around noon, before activity picks up again in the evening and over night hours. Coverage of showers and a few storms tomorrow is going to be 50%. 

 

There will also be a few shots at showers generally Sunday morning. Coverage is shaping up to be 30% and will be more isolated in the afternoon hours. Leftover showers can't be ruled out Monday and Tuesday. Although the percentages are lower these days, things may change. All-in-all this is really good news. We are starting to get into the warmer portion of the year and this means more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. 

 

 

 

The latest computer forecast is still focusing the most coverage and intensity of showers to be in the late afternoon and evening tomorrow. For the first time this year, there will actually be a few thunderstorms moving through the region. These storms will have the heaviest of rain and some gusty wind at times. There is a threat for severe storms in southeast New Mexico and western Permian Basin, but those are not anticipated in our area. I can't rule out a storm with some hail tomorrow, but it is not expected to be anything really bad, or long lasting. A cold front will help to keep highs in the mid 50s tomorrow afternoon. So, it will be noticeably cooler and temperatures will drop a few degrees for areas that do get the rainfall.

 

 

 

I mentioned above that we're moving into the warmer time of the year. Traditionally, March is a transition month, much like October. We usually start off cooler and end up warmer this time of year. You can see that, so far, Lubbock has seen more above average high temperature days, than below. Some spots east of Lubbock actually saw highs in the low 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. We're going to anticipate more warm air in the coming week. That being said, you can't rule out the March cold front that brings highs down below average. We're going to see that tomorrow, with the potential for a stronger cold front next week. The details still need to be ironed out, but something to keep an eye on for sure. 

 

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