Well, we're in the peak of severe weather season and here we are again talking about another round of severe storms in the forecast. The orange areas highlighted above have the highest risk for those storms this afternoon and evening. The yellow areas can see wind gusts 75 mph, with less of a hail threat. This does include Lubbock. The dry line is will be the focal point for thunderstorm development today. Areas to the east of the dry line will watch these storms form quickly, form a line and push off to the east and southeast. Damaging wind is going to be the biggest issue with this line of storms today. Hail will be possible for Motley, Dickens and Kent Counties, with the largest size between ping pong ball and golf ball size. Thankfully, that will be more spotty within these storms. Wind gusts to 70 mph has the potential to knock down trees and tree limbs and could cause damage to home siding and roofs. So be sure to pay attention to the weather this afternoon and evening.
The photo above is the high resolution computer forecast for 4:00 pm today. This already has the storms formed into a line and east of Lubbock. The dry line will depend on who gets the storms first. If it moves farther west, Lubbock will see the storms begin here. If it moves just a bit east, it will look like this forecast. So that is something to watch as this unfolds this afternoon. The storms will be in a line, so the tornado threat is not going to be there today, which is good. However, when you get a line of storms, strong wind gusts are the favored element. We will see plenty of wind with the storms this afternoon and evening. Hail will be spotty, but could get up to ping pong ball and golf ball size. Heavy rain and flooding will be a concern today because there is plenty of moisture in place for west Texas.
The dry line will get a push east thanks to a cold front. That cold front will be stalled just north of Lubbock. As it gets going to the south, thunderstorms will exit the region and cooler air will filter in from the north. The wind will be light tomorrow and we will clear out with sunny skies and dry air. There is not going to be any rain in the forecast for the weekend, not even isolated. So don't expect any mention of rain through the middle of next week. We do need the rain, but dry air will hang around for several days.