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A Severe Weather Sunday


The weekend started off with an active weather day on Saturday. Our area had the first tornado warning of the season over in Garza County. There were also a few funnel cloud reports along the Garza/Borden County line. As you can see in the photo above, there were many hail reports throughout the region from Gaines County, up to Hale and Briscoe Counties. Lubbock County had several hail reports, including a 2" diameter report in Woodrow. That's about tennis ball size. Other Lubbock County reports ranged from 1.5" in Slaton, to 1-1.75" in southwest Lubbock County. There was a wind damage report in Lynn County of an enclosed trailer towed by a vehicle tipped over on highway 87. So there was a lot of pockets of large hail with the storms on Saturday, as well as plenty of high wind gusts between 60-70 mph. Much of the same is in the forecast for today.

Much like yesterday, the yellow counties have the best shot at seeing severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This is going to cover a much larger area than what we saw Saturday. That is because the dry line has retreated all the way back into eastern New Mexico. So there is a lot more moisture to work with across a larger region today. I also heard of a lot of people out on Lake Alan Henry caught in the dangerous storm yesterday. Please pay attention to the weather today. I know it is a holiday weekend and a lot of people want to get outside, especially with the state opening up more businesses during this COVID-19 pandemic. Please take this seriously and have multiple ways to get important weather information today. You need to stay safe out there! Being outside during severe storms is extremely dangerous because of the hail, high wind and flooding. All of which are in the forecast today.

I am showing the high resolution computer forecast again because it was fairly accurate again with predicting the storm time, location and intensity on Saturday. The photo above is the forecast radar at 7:00 pm today. It's showing thunderstorms starting farther west than yesterday. That's because of the dry line location today. We did not get the large line of storms in our area yesterday that was forecast, but today is looking a bit better for a line to quickly form and move off to the east. Early on in storm development, between 5:00-7:00 pm, hail to 2" in diameter will be a big hazard. But as the storms start to move east and form a line, damaging wind to 75 mph will be a bigger threat. It's looking like the largest hail threat is going to be in the western counties this evening. That is not saying that other locations will not see hail, it's just noting the best ingredients for large hail will be west of Lubbock. Please be advised and be safe today.

The weather impacts today will focus on wind, hail and flooding. That hail threat is not as large as it was Saturday, but will still have the potential to reach tennis ball size in some spots west of Lubbock. Lubbock could even see some hail to golf ball size. Even though the threat of hail for Lubbock is lower today, it is definitely not zero. Wind gusts to 75 mph will be a big problem and could knock out power to many areas, as well as knock down tree branches and blow around larger vehicles on area highways. Flooding is going to be a high danger with the storms. There is a large amount of moisture in the air across west Texas today. The storms will tap into that and will flood roads and low lying areas very fast. Portions of Garza County saw upwards of 6-7" of rain in about three hours yesterday! Graham, southwest of Post, reported 6.60" of rain and Post saw 3.42" in a small amount of time. Please avoid flooded areas because they will be very dangerous.

Tomorrow is Memorial Day and many people are off work and will want to get out and about again. I want to note that there is another risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. The darker green areas have a marginal threat for severe storms, while the 12:30 pm update has increased the severe threat for the yellow areas above. Hail to golf ball size and 70 mph wind will be possible with any storms that get going. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast Monday, but for some of us will not be severe. The threat, as of now, will be confined to areas southeast of Lubbock. This could obviously change tomorrow morning either shifting the area around, or upgrading to a higher risk. It will be monitored, but as of today, a large threat of severe storms is not anticipated.

The high resolution computer forecast is showing showers and thunderstorms ongoing at 7:00 pm tomorrow. We're going to see these storms at 60% across the region tomorrow. The farther south you go, the better shot at seeing the 1" diameter hail potential and 60 mph wind gusts. Lubbock is expecting storms between 4:00-7:00 pm on Monday. Watch out for heavy rain and flooding throughout west Texas. We have seen these showers and storms drop heavy rain Saturday, they will today, too. So the ground is going to be very saturated. Therefore, flooding is going to be a high risk for the areas that get rain Monday. We'll see a shot to see more rain basically every day during the next work week, as well. Have the rain gear handy and do not drive through flooded road ways. That is very dangerous!

 

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