This spring has been unusually calm, in terms of severe weather. We have not had the potential to see severe storms in more than a month. Actually, it's been since March 13. That is just crazy to think about. We usually have outlooks and possibilities to see storms for most of April. I suppose April 2021 just does not want to comply and that is ok. However, with all of that said, there is a shot at severe storms in the region tonight.
The yellow areas in the map above have the possibility to see severe storms. It's more likely that these storms will affect Motley, Cottle, Dickens and King Counties. These counties could see egg, to tennis ball size hail, 70 mph wind and heavy rain. There is a small chance for a tornado, or two, in those counties as well. Farther west, the threat looks to be lower. For Lubbock, if we get a storm later, the main issues will be 70 mph wind, heavy rain and flooding, as well as small hail. This really depends on where the dry line ends up.
Said dry line will be well east of Lubbock for most of the day. It is forecast to move back to the west this evening. As it does, it will interact with a cold front sweeping through west Texas. Once that occurs, storms will develop and will race to the east. So that is the setup. The timing will be around 6:00 pm for those far eastern counties, then around 10:00 pm for Lubbock County, if the dry line can make it that far west.
The two photos above are just two of the models I look at to forecast. They are both high resolution models, which means they have a better look at what could potentially occur. These two also update more frequency then the other seven models I use. They are both showing more of an isolated thunderstorm setup tonight. Both of these are as of 1:00 am Wednesday. Both of these models are also keeping thunderstorms east of Lubbock. Remember, these are just computers. Real life ingredients and conditions will vary. But with that said, all models are trending on keeping these storms east of Lubbock.
If you live in Lubbock County, I would not rule out the seeing a storm tonight. It will be late; closer to 10:00 pm-1:00 am. Lubbock County would likely see 70 mph wind, heavy rain and small, non-severe, hail. As of publishing this post, the best threat for severe storms will be east of Lubbock. I will obviously watch this throughout the day and post any updates as necessary. Stay weather aware tonight!