October Severe Setup



Severe thunderstorms will start affect the state of Texas on Tuesday. A strong low pressure system will be the focal point for severe storms beginning Tuesday afternoon. The picture on the left above is the Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday. The orange areas have the highest risk to see severe storms with 60 mph wind, large hail and a few tornadoes. The timing will be Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, as they sweep east.


There is still a risk for severe storms on Wednesday morning, in the yellow areas of the above photo on the right. This risk will mainly be for damaging wind gusts over 60 mph. Even though the line of storms will generally move quickly, there will still be some heavy rain and flooding possible. So keep that in mind on Wednesday morning as you head to work. We're going to see much cooler and more pleasant air behind this storm system Wednesday afternoon through the weekend.




The two photos above are the computer forecast for the line of storms to move through Texas. The left picture is the forecast for 6:00 pm Tuesday-Midnight Wednesday morning. The photo on the right is the forecast for Midnight-6:00 am Wednesday. West Texas looks to remain on the dry side from this system, although an isolated storm, or two, can't be ruled out. We're mainly focusing on Concho Valley, Big Country, Texoma, Big Bend area, Central, North and East Texas to be affected from this system. The worst storms will be Tuesday afternoon/evening from the Big Country, to North Texas and along parts of the Red River Valley. The storms will generally weaken to heavy rain and gusty wind by early Wednesday morning as they sweep to the east.


For up to date watches and warnings, be sure to follow along at Twitter.com/Nick_Weather. You can get severe thunderstorm watches at facebook.com/NickKraynok, as well.