The latest model update as of Friday afternoon has shown the low pressure system bringing in the snow this weekend is going to move a bit faster than it looked two days ago. That means the duration of snow is not going to be that long, but there are still indications of bands of heavier snow Sunday afternoon and evening. The three models above still show snow falling on Sunday. They have snow beginning early Sunday morning northwest of Lubbock, then the snow starting in Lubbock between 9:00-11:00 am, then the eastern counties just after noon. The models above are forecasting the snow to end between 3:00-6:00 pm. I don't think it will end that quickly, however. I am thinking the snow should wrap up for Lubbock by 1:00 am Monday morning and for the eastern counties by 6:00 am Monday.
The same three models show a varying amount of snow accumulation for the region, which is expected. The NAM model typically does not perform well for west Texas for snow, or thunderstorms. So it's no surprise that its forecast is showing the least amount of snow. The GFS's bias is to overproduce precipitation. The Euro is typically more accurate for storms and for winter weather events in our area. With that being said, the GFS and Euro are similar in timing of the snow and in accumulations. It's looking like Lubbock will see between 2-4" of snow, with locally higher amounts up to 6" possible. South of Lubbock will see between 2-4" as well. Locally higher amounts up to 6-7" are possible there. Now, areas northeast of Lubbock look to see the highest, with 6-8" possible and isolated amounts up to 10" can not be ruled out. This snow will not be wet, like we saw in January. It will be more of a fluffy snow. Travel is strongly discouraged on Sunday afternoon and evening.
We already know that the Arctic air mass is here. Lubbock dropped below freezing on Thursday evening and we will not get above freezing until Thursday, February 18 in the afternoon! Highs will stay in the low 20s on Saturday, with the coldest air arriving Sunday, into Monday morning. We're still looking at highs in the low teens on Sunday, with Lubbock's high forecast to be 12°. Monday morning will drop down to -3°F. That will be the lowest temperature Lubbock has seen since December of 1989! Wind chill values will be between -15° to -20°F. It will be best to stay inside on Sunday. I know it is Valentine's Day, but it's better to be safe than sorry. Remember to check on the elderly, bring in the pets and drip your faucets from today all the way through Thursday. That way your pipes will not freeze and burst.
Should anything change Saturday afternoon, I will post another update. You can also watch me with all the latest on KLBK Saturday at 6:00 and 10:00 pm.