Good afternoon! Portions of Texas have a risk at seeing severe weather as we move into the weekend. First off, there will be a few showers/storms in the panhandle late tonight. The forecast model above is showing a small line north of Lubbock at 9:00 pm. It forecasts this t move to the east and fizzle out just after midnight. This is just one model run, but it updates every hour and gives us a good idea of where the focus will be on rain tonight. This is a good thing, as the panhandle really needs some precipitation. There is a slight risk of severe storms in the panhandle, but I'm not expecting a widespread severe weather event tonight. It should stay more isolated at best.
Now as we move along to Saturday, that is when more widespread severe weather is expected. West Texas is the focus for these severe storms on Saturday. It has been a pretty quiet severe weather season in West Texas (all things considered) this year. But it looks like things will be organized Saturday for some severe storms with 1-2" diameter hail, 70 mph wind gusts and an isolated tornado. Although, the tornado threat is going to be low. The yellow areas are the focus for severe storms after 3:00 pm. That is the best window, give or take an hour, to see the severe storms; so pretty typical for West Texas standards. It would be best to get your errands done during the day on Saturday, rather than risk your car getting hail damage after 6:00 pm.
The photos above are computer forecasts for the storms Saturday for the time frame of 1:00-7:00 pm. The bottom picture is another model that is a little slower bringing in the line of storms. That forecast is for 3:00-9:00 pm. Regardless, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in West Texas along a dry line after 3:00 pm Saturday. The first few hours will be the best time frame to see 1-2" diameter hail. As it gets later in the evening and after sunset, the storms will pose more of a threat for heavy rain and 60 mph wind gusts.
The good news is that the storms will bring much needed rain. The bad news of course is the threat for golf ball size hail or slightly larger. May is a very active time for West Texas to see severe weather. This year has been slow to get going, but will be active with the stormy weather Saturday afternoon and evening. Have multiple ways to receive severe weather alerts. Don't just rely on your phone. Be safe on Saturday and if anything changes, I will be sure to post another update!