The low pressure system that will bring snow to the area tonight is just to the northwest of the Texas/New Mexico state line. That will move down into the Permian Basin tonight, bring in more moisture and snow. There is a winter weather advisory for the northern row of counties until 6:00 pm Sunday. The rest of the area has a winter storm warning until 6:00 pm Sunday. The difference being the advisory counties will see less snow, but will still have some travel issues. The warning counties will see accumulating snow and driving conditions will be hazardous during the day Sunday and into Monday morning.
The photos above are the latest forecast models for precipitation from tonight, through the period ending at 6:00 am Sunday. All three of these models indicate snow will be falling for the hours of midnight-6:00 am. The all actually show some darker blue colors, indicating heavier snow bands likely setting up just southeast of Lubbock. These models also show the low pressure track moving a bit farther south of our area than it did yesterday. That means that the snow accumulations will move farther south, as well. The northern counties will not see as much snow as the southern and southeastern counties will. The snow is forecast to wrap up around noon-1:00 pm for Lubbock and by 5:00 pm in the east and southeast counties. That timing has been consistent over the last two days, or so.
You can see forecast snow totals in the three photos above. Those are three different model forecasts ending at 6:00 am Monday. All three models have really come down in totals and have focused on the southeastern counties seeing the most accumulation of snow. With that said, you can see that they are forecasting anywhere from 4-6" of snow for Lubbock. Remember, these are just computers. You have to take in account a couple of other model forecasts, as well as the precipitation forecast discussed above. The main thing to take away from these photos is that the lighter snow will be north of Lubbock and the heaviest will be to the southeast.
Now, onto what everyone wants to know: how much snow will I get? As mentioned above, the northern counties will see less snow, but will still have slick spots on the roads. Parmer County, east to Hall County will see 1-3" of snow through noon Sunday. Gaines County is looking to see 2-4" of snow. The pink areas, including Lubbock, Plainview, Floydada, Ralls, Crosbyton, Levelland and Tahoka will see anywhere from 3-6" of snow by noon Sunday. There will be locally higher amounts possible; likely around 7-8" in some spots. Garza, Kent, Borden and Scurry counties are forecast to receive 4-7" of snow. Locally higher amounts in these counties could be up to 9-10".
Please keep in mind that from Plainview south roads will be in awful conditions on Sunday. Driving is not recommended all day Sunday and even into Monday morning in these locations. Low temperatures will be in the teens on Monday, which means snow and ice will stick around. Even four wheel drive vehicles will struggle. In Lubbock, the loop, Marsha Sharp Freeway and I-27 will not be drivable. Those roads will be very slick, especially the bridges and overpasses. Just stay home and enjoy the snow day on Sunday and Monday. The snow should be melted by Tuesday afternoon, or Wednesday.
Please take this snow storm seriously. Save thousands of dollars of damage to your vehicle and stay home Sunday and even Monday. We haven't seen this much snow since December 8, 2018. So make a snowman, let the kids play in the snow, or just stay in the warmth of your home. Please take it easy out there with this impending storm.