We are getting close to the arrival of the next winter storm for west Texas...or most of Texas for that matter. The photo above shows a winter storm warning is in effect (the pink shading) for basically the entire state of Texas! I can't remember a time during my nearly 13 years living in Texas that this has been the case. This is in effect until 6:00 am Monday and will officially begin at 9:00 pm tonight. Accumulating snow of 2-4" possible, with locally higher amounts reaching 6-7".
The computer forecast models shown above (three out of the nine I use to forecast) are all showing this storm coming in quickly tonight and leaving quicker than it looked yesterday. Our western counties could start seeing snow late tonight and very early tomorrow morning. It's possible Lubbock could start to see some snow falling by 6:00 am Sunday morning. It still looks like accumulating snow should begin around 10:00 am Sunday for Lubbock and last through 7:00-8:00 pm Sunday night. All of the snow should shut off for Lubbock by 11:00 pm -midnight Sunday night/Monday morning. The eastern counties will see snow ending between 3:00-6:00 am Monday morning. It now appears that the pockets, or bands, of heavier snow will be more few and far between, so accumulations won't be as high as it looked yesterday. Even with that said, widespread totals of 2-4" are certainly possible.
The computer models have really come down in terms of accumulation totals for this storm on Sunday. These three models are indicating between 2-4" of snow for most of the area. It still appears likely that the areas northeast of Lubbock see the higher totals, somewhere between 7-8" in isolated spots. More widespread totals of 6" possible northeast of Lubbock. Lubbock will see between 2-4" of snow, with some portions of Lubbock County seeing totals around 5-6". Road conditions will start to deteriorate Sunday morning and will be awful by Sunday afternoon. Please stay at home and stay safe. Do not drive unless you absolutely have to. Even if you have a four wheel drive vehicle. Roads will be bad on Monday, as well. But most will be home do to the federal holiday.
It is still going to get very cold Sunday and Monday mornings. The coldest morning will be Monday. Low temperatures will be dropping to -3° to -6° across the region. Wind chill values will range from -15° to -20°. That is very dangerous which is why you need to stay inside. Please remember to drip your faucets so your pipes don't freeze and burst. Keep the pets and kids indoors and check on the elderly. It's never a good idea to run gas stoves, or gas heaters without cracking a window, or having a carbon monoxide detector. We have already had one person die this week in Lubbock from carbon monoxide poisoning. Highs will stay below freezing through Thursday.
There is another shot to see some snow in Lubbock on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. I will address that system on Monday.